Short-Term Energy Outlook

(Tue, 11 Aug 2026) <strong>Global oil market assumptions.</strong> We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August. We expect most crude oil production in the region to return to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027; however, we expect ongoing disruptions of about 0.6 million barrels per day to continue through the end of next year.